How Will Hurricane Ian Affect Florida Real Estate?

Fort Myers / SW Florida

A strong category 4 storm at landfall

The greater Fort Myers area, including its barrier islands of Sanibel and Captiva, saw the worst effects of Hurricane Ian as it made landfall as a strong Category 4 storm with sustained winds of nearly 150 mph. This powerful, slow-moving hurricane, which generated storm surge of 10-feet-plus and extensive flooding in our coastal areas, heavily obliterated Fort Myers Beach, including our beloved Times Square and many restaurants. A small part of the Sanibel causeway was even washed out which made it impossible to access Sanibel by road, but has now been re-opened as of Oct 20. Many homes on the Island were succumb to extensive flooding and/or completely destroyed. Other areas of SW Florida which saw extensive damage include Pine Island, Matlacha, Cape Coral and the historical parts of Iona/McGregor. The Island Park area of Fort Myers also experienced flooding as the areas west of US 41 are at a higher risk of flooding in general.

As for the Fort Myers communities east of US 41, most homes faired quite well with only minor roof damage, pool cage screens being torn and many trees and/or limbs down. Again, much less damage overall as compared to the coastal areas that received the storm surge and vast flooding.

The effects of Ian will definitely be felt in our housing market in the coming months. As there is much devastation in the coastal areas, it will certainly take a lot of time and effort to rebuild, likely several years in the most affected areas.

My expectation for the Fort Myers hosuing market going forward is that the areas east of US 41 will have increased demand as most of these areas are at least safe from any threatening storm surge and flooding. I also expect to see a stronger preference for newer construction homes in our area as they are engineered for the strongest hurricane winds, such as the top-selling master-planned community of Babcock Ranch located east of I-75 on the border of Lee and Charlotte Counties.

For future residents seeking to relocate to the greater Fort Myers area, it’s important to understand the inherent risk of a potential hurricane as this is simply a part of Florida life. If planned for properly though, hurricanes are nothing to be afraid of as they are relatively infrequent events. I would urge strong consideration of the following points prior to making a home purchase.

• Being on or near the Gulf comes with some inherent storm surge risk.
• If purchasing in a flood zone, pay attention to the zone you will be in, including the elevation as well as the evacuation zone.
• Consider newer built homes as they are built to withstand hurricane force winds and usually come out fine post-storm
• Make sure you have storm protection for your windows (i.e. shutters and/or hurricane-resistant windows)
• Consider purchasing a generator to run appliances should the electric go out

Orlando / Central Florida

Ian's effects were mild with minimal flooding

The Orlando and Central Florida area was mildly affected by Hurricane Ian. Very few areas experienced any major flooding, especially in new construction regions with planned unit developments, which will likely make these developments even more attractive to buyers going forward.

If we use past hurricanes as a reference, I think we’ll see some pullback in the Orlando real estate market, as this is fairly common post a large-reaching storm. I also foresee a dip in closings across all of Central Florida, for a variety of factors, including damage to homes, insurance issues, as well as already existing buyer uncertainty due to macroeconomics being exacerbated by the storm.

For the homes which did experience some flooding, these will obviously be the hardest hit as they now carry a greater risk of repeat flooding. As such, Ian has showcased the areas which are most vulnerable, and will likely have a future impact on home values there.

I believe the majority of Orlando’s real estate market will continue to be very strong as Hurricane Ian how clearly demonstrated how well positioned Orlando is against hurricanes. As Ian entered Florida as a strong category 4 storm, this was about as bad as it gets but Orlando’s inland position safely protected us from the most dangerous aspects of the storm including its storm surge and extreme winds. As a result of Ian, it is also possible that Central Florida ends up seeing a potential boom in relocations as people seek to escape the coasts and inherent risks associated with living near them.

Although Ian will likely be a contributing factor for a slight pull-back in our market, I still believe the main contributing factor will be the overwhelming consumer uncertainty in the economy as a whole that leads to a much needed, albeit not ideal, market correction. I am sure that some out-of-state buyers considering moving permanently to Florida to buy a home, an investment home, or a second home, will have some trepidation, but overall I feel that Orlando and Florida as a whole will remain a very attractive market for relocation, investment, and remain a great long term choice for most buyers.

My recommendation to prospective buyers would be to recognize the importance of having a great team of experts with local knowledge to help you determine that a house which may appear as a good deal on the surface, may ultimately not be, and may become a potential money pit of problems. A great home inspector, insurance representative, general contractor, handyman, and other vendors who have experience in hurricane affected areas should all be consulted. It also exemplifies how important it is to choose a real estate agent with deep local knowledge in the area a buyer is considering.