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The Florida Real Estate Market Outlook For 2024

Market trends, home prices and relocation advice from real estate experts

The demand for Florida real estate has been exceedingly strong over the past few years, but now in late November of 2023 the Florida market is undergoing a healthy rebalancing with the higher interest rates and increased cost of borrowing. As Florida’s home prices are still hovering near all-time highs, combined with higher rates and rising home insurance costs, some buyers are now becoming more challenged with overall home affordability.

At the end of October 2023, the median single family Florida home price was $410K and this represents a 2% year-over-year price increase. To view a breakdown of median home prices for each of Florida's city regions, be sure to visit our how expensive is it to live in Florida page where we also overview the cost of living in Florida as compared to other states.

Median Prices of Florida Real Estate

Type Oct 2023 Oct 2022 % Change
Single Family Homes $410K $402K + 2%
Condos/Townhomes $322K $310K + 4%
Months of Inventory 3.5 2.7 + 30%
  Source: FloridaRealtors.org, October 2023
With so many people moving to Florida in recent years, this has caused housing prices to rise significantly in a relatively short period of time. This strong demand has also caused the amount of homes for sale, often referred to as available inventory, to remain relatively low at a 3.5 month's supply (a six month's supply is standard in a normal market). Additionally, as the majority of Florida homeowners have a mortgage rate well under the current 7%+ rate, many are choosing to remain in their current home with their low monthly payment, versus moving and taking on a higher payment, and this means fewer listings hitting the market each month. With less homes available to choose from, correctly priced homes are continuing to sell fairly quick after hitting the market and for homes in choice neighborhoods with good schools and preferred location, some multiple-offer situations are still occurring, but at a much lesser pace than was during the market peak.

Florida's new home construction market is also experiencing a pullback in consumer demand with the now higher rates. As such, some national home builders are now offering buyers, who opt to use their in-house lenders, a more attractive rate as well as credits to buyers to help buy down their rate. In terms of the build time for new Florida homes, wait times can now be 12+ months in some cases, versus the more typical 7 - 9 months build time (from initial contract to close) as construction labor shortages are now causing delays for home builders in various metropolitan markets around the state. While many who are relocating to Florida are eager to escape the cold weather or to start their retirement years as Floridians, and not necessarily wanting to wait this extended length of time for a home to be built, many are opting for recently-built homes in the resale market and will often pay a premium above ask price to secure a deal.

Florida Median Home Price vs Inventory

Plotted values are single family homes, past 12 months

After many interest rates hikes over the past 18 months, we are now seeing where the inventory of single family homes (measured in months) has risen to its highest level in over a year, but still remains at a low level. At the end of October 2023, the median Florida home price has increased slightly to $410K.

   Source: FloridaRealtors.org, October 2023
If you're considering moving to Florida and doing your initial research online, we encourage you to read the comments below by our real estate experts as they discuss their outlook for Florida home prices heading into 2024, current market trends taking place as well as helpful relocation advice.

Florida Market Outlook (by region)

NW Florida / Panhandle

Pensacola

A More Balanced Market

The Pensacola real estate market continues to transition back to a more balanced one, where buyer and seller demand are more equal. As we're heading into the close of 2023, we are now seeing where the higher interest rates are causing some heavily-financed buyers to pause or hold-off on purchasing due to the increased monthly payments. On the seller side, we continue to see more reductions in listing prices, more contributions towards closing costs, or offers to help buy down the interest rate for qualified buyers.

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As for Pensacola’s new construction market, home builders are currently offering some great incentives such as interest rates from 4.99% (government loans) to 6.25% (conventional loans) with an additional $5K-$15K in incentives for buyers who can close quickly within 30-45 days.

Pensacola Market Forecast for 2024

My outlook for the Pensacola real estate market heading into 2024 is for prices to remain relatively flat overall as our market continues to normalize. However, once interest rates finally begin to decline, I expect buyer activity to jump significantly at that time and we’ll quickly be back to seeing more “multiple” and “above-ask” offers.

Market Trends

I have been observing the following market trends.
  • Fewer investors chasing properties for Airbnb rentals than was during the market peak.
  • An uptick in younger buyers purchasing their first home to escape rising rental rates.
  • More cash deals than financed deals currently taking place.


Relocation Advice

The best advice I can provide is to talk to a lender and make sure you take the appropriate steps to get pre-approved before you relocate (i.e. get pre-approved while you’re still working and quit your job to move here). I would also mention that the longer you wait to move here, prices are likely to increase due to the strong demand for housing.


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West Coast Florida

Tampa Bay

Housing Prices are Rebalancing

After many interest rate increases over the past year, the Tampa Bay housing market is now experiencing a rebalancing and there is new competition shifting towards lower-priced homes once again of $250K - $500K. We are also seeing fewer multiple offer situations taking place as sellers are not as well positioned to demand that buyers pay over ask, as was in the peak of the market. The higher interest rates have also discouraged buyers as it has only amplified the unaffordability of the higher-priced homes which they were originally looking at.

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While housing inventory levels for the Tampa Bay region remain low, they have increased off the historically low levels we saw at the end of 2021 and early 2022. As some sellers are still trying to capture the peak market prices, we are now seeing where homes are now sitting on the market longer, listing prices are being reduced, more negotiations and even seller concessions are taking place.

In terms of Tampa Bay’s new construction market, builders are no-longer implementing lottery systems, but buyers, who are not purchasing an inventory home, will still need to get registered on builder wait lists and wait times for custom homes are still running roughly 10+ months.


Tampa Bay Market Forecast for 2024

My outlook for the Tampa Bay housing market for early 2024 is a continuation of the same strong buyer demand, for many reasons. I also expect to see our home prices continuing to stabilize and for home appreciation rates to be much lower going forward. Current housing inventory in the Tampa Bay area is roughly 2.9 months (as of Oct 2023) and I see these inventory levels slowly trending back to a more normalized market of 5 – 7 months in the year ahead.


Market Trends

I am observing the following trends currently taking place in the Tampa Bay housing market.
  • The number of sales transactions has slowed a bit due to increased interest rates and the continued low inventory levels.
  • Sellers are currently negotiating more, and implementing listing price reductions, as their homes are sitting on the market a bit longer.
  • Investors continue to purchase properties for Airbnb and annual rentals as Tampa’s rental market is one of the strongest in the country.
  • Large hedge funds and cash buyers are now being more picky with their purchases and inspections, and not offering “slam dunk” offers as was previously.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I can provide to those seeking to soon relocate to the Tampa Bay area is reach out to me as I have now lived in the area for over 28 years and am glad to share lots of helpful insights about our housing market, top communities and new developments, our expanding employment market, fun things-to-do as well as local scenes to explore. I can also connect you with top lenders to make your transition to the Tampa Bay area as smooth as possible.


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Lakewood Ranch

Buyers are More Discerning

The current Lakewood Ranch and Sarasota real estate markets continue to see healthy demand for housing, which has caused the median sales price for single family homes in Sarasota County to hit a record high of $537.5K earlier this year, even though the number of closed sales has actually decreased year-over-year by roughly 15%. Buyers have become more discerning and sellers are now more realistic and aggressive in their pricing, especially if work needs to be completed in their home. We are also seeing where current housing inventory levels are continuing to slowly rise back to more normal levels, a sign that the market is in the process of transitioning back to a more balanced and healthy market.

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In the new construction market, builders are back to offering pre-Covid sales incentives, such as $10K towards closing costs or healthy incentives towards a pool package. The majority of our area’s builders have also ceased their “highest and best” bidding process in exchange for the traditional “first come, first served” process of which buyers are delighted to see. Although supply chain issues are still causing some minor delays and ruckuses here and there, it’s not nearly as bad as it was a year ago.

Lakewood Ranch Market Forecast for 2024

My outlook for the Sarasota / Manatee housing market for the year ahead is a continuation of the same persistent demand derived from retirees relocating to our region, families seeking our top-ranked schools as well as work-from-home lifestyle changes. However, with the now higher rates and general increase in the cost of living across the board, we will likely continue to see more and more buyers priced out of our market, allowing inventory levels to continue rising over time. I also expect to only see the realistically-priced and well-marketed listings continue to sell, in addition to continued strong interest from all-cash and heavy-cash buyers.

Market Trends

These are the most notable trends I am observing.
  • Demand for 2nd homes by baby boomers as they reach retirement age and fulfill their Florida retirement dreams.
  • A greater number of younger families moving to Florida and seeking out good school districts and communities with built-in social opportunities.
  • A strong preference by buyers for amenity-rich communities offering social activities.
  • Real estate investors are seeking more longer-term rental opportunities vs the traditional "quick-flip" opportunities.

Relocation Advice

Start your home search now, even if you’re not planning on moving to Lakewood Ranch / Sarasota for another year or two. This will give you the needed time to thoroughly research an area and to set realistic expectations for the home you can afford, including the timeline it will take to either purchase, renovate, or build the new home. Also, make sure to connect with a licensed Realtor who can assist you in your search. Leverage their local market knowledge and proven experience in working new constructions deals and in crafting offers in this intricate market. The current Lakewood Ranch real estate market is extremely competitive as we are a top-selling community in the entire nation and working with a true professional will only save you time, energy and headaches.


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Sarasota / Venice

Strong Demand in the Suncoast

The Sarasota real estate market remains strong heading into the holiday season as many continue to relocate to the Suncoast from the Northeast, the Midwest and other parts of the county for our Florida climate and high-quality of life, especially for retirement. We are still in a seller’s market as current inventory levels remain at roughly a 3 month supply, vs a more balanced market of a 6 month supply. Many deals continue to remain all-cash or heavy-cash and I am still seeing a few multiple offers take place for properties which are priced correctly in choice neighborhoods and offer many resident amenities. For the heavily-financed buyer, they are now facing some challenges with the now higher rates where monthly payments can be as high as 40% or more for the same house than was a year ago.

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Sarasota's new construction market remains healthy as many top builders continue to announce new communities and offerings, mostly east of I-75 or in South Sarasota county as land is available to build. New construction releases tend to be in smaller quantities though and wait times are now much less than was during the market peak when supply chain issues were causing delays.

Sarasota / Venice Market Forecast for 2024

My Outlook for the Sarasota housing market in the coming year is a continuation of the same healthy buyer demand and slightly reduced inventory levels. Should the Fed continue to raise rates again, I don’t really see this having much impact on our housing market as so many buyers do not obtain financing. Also, with higher interest rates, I would expect home prices to remain mostly flat or slightly higher in the coming months, vs the high appreciation we saw in recent years.

Market Trends

Many of my buyers continue to seek out master-planned communities such as Palmer Ranch or Wellen Park as these communities offer many resident amenities and a variety of home styles from single family, townhome and condo at varying price points. I am also observing where listings are now sitting on the market slightly longer and is an overall healthy sign for our real estate market.

Relocation Advice

The best relocation advice I can give is to choose an experienced Realtor who has a strong knowledge of the areas/neighborhoods you are seeking and to leverage this to your advantage. It’s also a good idea to start your search early to get a feel for the properties hitting the market and to see what they are selling for. Lastly, if you will be obtaining financing, reach out to a qualified lender to get pre-approved and to have your finances in order. I have several top lenders of which I am glad put you in touch with!


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Fort Myers / Naples

Inventory Remains Very Low

We have continued demand for housing here in the Fort Myers/Naples area as many are fleeing the Midwest, New York, and New Jersey for better weather and lifestyle. Our housing inventory in late fall of 2023 continues to remain very low though at roughly a 3 month supply (vs a 6 month supply in a balanced market) as we continue to experience fewer listings hitting the market than we would normally see. At the same time, we are also seeing where buyer demand has decreased a bit as some are unwilling or now unable to purchase at our current housing prices with the higher interest rates.

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Fort Myers / Naples Market Forecast for 2024

My outlook for the Fort Myers and SW Florida housing market for 2024 is that demand will continue to remain fairly strong as our seasonal snowbirds and vacationers return for the fall and winter months. Even though we’re experiencing a slight pullback in buyer activity, we still have a decent number cash buyers already living here in Southwest Florida that want their own piece of paradise, in addition to those relocating here, albeit at a slower pace than we saw previously.

Market Trends

Based upon current economic conditions, I am now seeing whereby most homes are now sitting on the market for roughly 45 -60 days before selling. The net result is better negotiating power for buyers. I'm also seeing more buyers asking for money towards their closing costs. This money can then be used to buy down their interest rate if they like, either permanently or with a temporary buy down.

Relocation Advice

The biggest piece of advice that I can give buyers is if you're thinking of buying, don't wait! If you're financing, be pre-approved and ready to go. Know how much money you'll need to put down and talk to your agent about strategic ways to make your offer more appealing to sellers. Also, keep in mind that having a mortgage is simply having a set housing cost, unlike renting, which is subject to market conditions and continues to rise each year. Marry the house, date the rate. Buyers can always refinance down the road if/when interest rates begin to fall.


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Central Florida

Orlando

Growth Continues in Central Florida

The Greater Orlando area remains a popular relocation destination for families to enjoy Florida's great weather, theme parks, beaches, and to work from home. Particularly, the newer construction areas of Lake Nona on the southeast side of Orlando International Airport as Lake Nona’s medical city and now Disney Campus announced to be built there. Newer Resale homes as well as new construction are in high demand and in short supply. Some builders are using a bidding system and charging high lot premiums for the chance to build a new home there, and it could take longer to complete, as much as 18 months build time.

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Getting into the best school districts and newer neighborhoods like Laureate Park, Eagle Creek, and parts of Winter Garden's Horizon west in a newer home is what most relocations hunt for, and thus it has become a fast-paced competitive market to get a property in this category. Expect to pay upwards of $250/square foot or more, including going over asking price with cash or very few contingencies, to have the chance to be the winning bidder on a high-quality resale home, or new lots that get released to build on.

Orlando Market Forecast for 2024

Growth will continue in Orlando’s most popular suburbs such as Lake Nona, Winter Garden, and established areas like Dr Phillips, Windermere, and Winter Park. Affordability of homes is getting tighter, and yet more and more relocations discover the Central Florida market, which is influencing our pricing locally.

As the Fed has increased interest rates many times over the past 18 months, which was anticipated by lenders, homes are now taking roughly 30-45 days on market to sell, and need to be priced "right" as there are now fewer buyers for each home.

My outlook for the Orlando real estate market is that we are heading back to a "balanced" market where buyers will have the time to decide which house and offer structure they want to go with, to some degree. Listings that have unique qualities, including renovations already done, swimming pools, larger lot sizes, and in locations with the best school districts, these continue to sell quickly and for high prices. We foresee in the months ahead that more sellers will cash out of their equity gained in these properties and may need contingency offers to be able to sell their home before they buy. Additionally, always be on the look-out for "deals" where an un-renovated home in a nice neighborhood may be able to be purchased at a discount, where a motivated seller is in place.

Market Trends

Cash buyers and strong financing offers with very little contingencies in place tend to win in multiple offer situations, so being ready with your finances is key. Buyers tend to gravitate to homes with larger lots, because in the new construction areas, many of the homes are packed close together. New builds are tougher to find and being ready when the builder releases a phase of lots is the way to win.

Relocation Advice

When relocating it is so important to narrow down the areas of Orlando you want to target, and don’t just look at new construction since those locations may be further out from the best schools and amenities, being that we are in an Urban Sprawl. Have enough time to hunt for resale homes that pop up for sale as well as lots to be released by builders, and be ready when they do. Consider purchasing a smaller townhome to live in for a year or two while you build your larger "forever home" in your favorite area of Orlando, to avoid paying high rent prices as you wait for the perfect resale or new construction opportunity.


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East Coast Florida

Jacksonville

A Healthy and Vibrant Market

The Jacksonville housing market continues to remain healthy and vibrant even after all the Fed’s record rate increases over the past year. Since the start of 2023, we’ve experienced increasing demand from buyers who continue to step up in this now higher-rate environment. This strong demand is causing the Jacksonville median home price to gradually rise each month and is also causing our available supply of homes to remain realtively low at a 3.5 month supply. New listings are now spending approximately 40 days on market vs 12 days as was during the Covid frenzy. While we are still experiencing some multiple offer situations for in-demand areas and price ranges, it's nowhere near nor extreme as it was during the market peak. New home builders have now also backed away from their auction system when releasing their available lots, which makes for a healthier and more balanced market.

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Jacksonville Market Forecast for 2024

My outlook for the Jacksonville real estate market in the 1st half of 2024 is that buyer demand will continue to be very healthy, and that this trend is likely to remain. Should the Fed raise rates again, which is likely to be minimal at this point, I don’t see this as having a big impact on our market as buyers have now digested the hefty rate increases and are now moving forward again. I also expect our Jacksonville home price appreciation to be much less than we saw during the pandemic years and think we’ll see appreciation more in the 1% - 5% range in the year ahead.


Market Trends

As Jacksonville grows into being a major US city, the demand for its real estate has come along for the ride. Many businesses are also relocating a portion of their operations (or even their full headquarters) which is bringing new jobs and more people seeking housing. With access to Atlantic coast beaches, the St Johns River, diverse shopping and restaurant options, and a lifestyle pace that is far more enticing than most major metropolitan areas, Northeast Florida is no-longer a hidden gem but a discovered reality. Several hundred new homes are being built in St Johns County alone every month. Many out-of-town buyers are also drawn to the amenity-rich master-planned communities of Silverleaf and Nocatee (south of Jacksonville) as they are top-selling communities in the entire Southeast.

Relocation Advice

If you're new to the Jacksonville area and not exactly sure where you’d like to live yet, feel free to reach out to me and we can discuss what activities you enjoy and what you’d like to be close to. Also, just wanted to mention that as Jacksonville is the 2nd largest U.S. city (behind Anchorage, AK) at 874 square-miles in size, your experiences in one part of town could be different that one’s in a different part. As a long-time resident of the Jacksonville area, I am glad to provide my unique perspective on the different areas of Jacksonville and even glad to connect you with others who reside in these areas who can relay their experiences.


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Fort Lauderdale

Consistent Sales with Low Inventory

While the Fort Lauderdale housing market experienced a substantial slowdown in activity during the latter half of last year, mostly due to the steep rate increases which eroded purchasing power, we are now seeing much stronger housing demand here in the fall months which continues to keep available inventory constrained, but not nearly as extreme as was during the market peak. Currently, housing inventory in Broward County remains low at a 3 month supply of homes which is keeping home prices at elevated levels. For homes in high-demand areas, we are once again experiencing multiple offers taking place, near or slightly above ask price, but again, nowhere near the level we experienced during the market peak.

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Fort Lauderdale Market Forecast for 2024

According to the latest consumer price index (CPI) numbers, it appears that inflation has now slowed as a result of the Fed’s many rate increases over the past 18 months. As we’ve now experienced four rate increases in 2023 alone, it appears we are now at, or near their target rate. Once rates finally stabilize and eventually begin to decline in 2024, my forecast for the Fort Lauderdale market is that there will likely be a jump in buyer activity and increased competition at that time.

Market Trends

We continue to see a significant amount of cash buyers in the Fort Lauderdale market. Nearly one third of single family homes and over half of condo-townhome are currently sold to cash buyers. We are also noticing where a larger number of sellers are willing to offer concessions to buy down credits for buyers.

Relocation Advice

When considering relocating to the Fort Lauderdale area, first and foremost, you will need a real estate pro to help guide you through the home buying process. There are various real estate markets throughout the Fort Lauderdale area, each with their own little nuances, and some of these areas/neighborhoods are seeing more activity than others. It’s no secret that we have had a lot of people coming from higher priced and cost of living markets moving to Florida. If you are planning to get a loan for your purchase, you will also want to get connected with a local loan officer who can review all your documents and get you initially underwritten to allow a short loan approval contingency. If you are planning to pay cash, make sure you have all the funds easily accessible and ready to go. If you are not in the area to see the property in person, video and virtual tours are available. As always, reach out to me with any questions you may have!


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Miami

Strong International Demand

The demand for Miami real estate, which spans new high-rise developments, second homes, and income-producing properties, remains steady from both domestic and international buyers amidst our rising-inflation and now higher interest rate environment. While current inventory levels in 4th quarter of 2023 have risen to a more healthy level of 3.6 months, vs 1.4 months as was during the market peak, this is still historically low. The average Miami home price is now $569K in November which represents a 6.7% year-over-year increase.

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As Miami-Dade County continues to attract buyers from Latin America who seek a cultural city, buyers from California and New York who seek tax benefits, as well as buyers from many top companies who are relocating their HQ's or regional offices to South Florida (120+ companies in 2022 alone), these factors continue to keep our housing market very strong, even over other Florida markets, amidst rising recession concerns.

Miami Market Forecast for 2024

My outlook for the Miami housing market in the year ahead is a continuation of the same consistent buyer demand as Miami continues growing into a large financial hub for many banks and financial companies and is now 2nd only in size to New York City on the east coast for the largest concentration of financial institutions. Should interest rates continue to bump up again, in addition to the increases already in 2023, this should not have any significant impact on demand as many deals continue to be all cash or heavy cash. I also expect home price appreciation to be much more moderate in the year ahead as we are now post-pandemic and our market is rebalancing from the unprecedented level of accelerated market appreciation over the past couple of years.

Market Trends

I am observing the following trends taking place.
  • A majority of deals continue to be all cash or heavy cash.
  • A younger demographic purchasing investment homes for Airbnb and VRBO rentals.
  • Continued strong demand from international buyers who are looking at the Miami market to acquire property as a way to diversify their investments. This has caused accelerated home price appreciation and now putting Florida more on par with the more expensive housing costs of New York and California.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I am able to offer those seeking to move to the Miami area for retirement, a job relocation or to be closer with family is to not wait too long as prices will likely keep rising with time, especially with our current inflationary environment as the same size house will simply cost you more in the future. As Florida has long been undervalued in its housing prices as compared to other highly-populated states, I do not expect this trend to reverse anytime soon.

For those who are seeking to purchase investment properties in the Miami area, I would encourage you to reach out to me as our team, and industry partners, are helping many to generate significantly more income and higher net returns than traditional “safe” investment property of the long-term. Although Florida real estate prices have risen in recent years, owning income-generating properties is still one of the best strategies many are using to build long-term wealth.


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