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The Florida Real Estate Market in 2022

Market outlook, trends and relocation advice from real estate experts

The demand for Florida real estate has been exceedingly strong over the past few years. Fueled by historic-low interest rates, a new work-from-home economy, corporate investors and a large influx of people relocating to the sunshine state, the average Florida home price at the end of June 2022, has now increased to $397K and represents a 34.3% year-over-year gain. To view the median prices for single family homes and condos/townhomes for each of Florida's city regions, be sure to visit our how expensive is it to live in Florida page where we also overview the cost of Living in Florida as compared to other states.

Median Prices of Florida Real Estate

Type Jun 2022 Jun 2021 % Change
Single Family Homes $420K $351K + 20%
Condos/Townhomes $325K $257K + 26%
  Source: FloridaRealtors.org, July 2022
With so many people moving to Florida since the start of the pandemic, this has caused housing prices to rise significantly in a relatively short period of time. This strong demand has also caused the amount of homes for sale, often referred to as available inventory, to be at historic lows of just under a 1.5 month's supply (a six month's supply is standard in a normal market). With such a limited amount of housing inventory available, homes are selling quickly after hitting the market, often above asking price, and multiple-offer situations are becoming the norm in choice neighborhoods with good schools and preferred locations.

Florida's new home construction market is also affected by the strong demand. Coupled with supply chain issues, wait times for new homes can be up to 15 months in some cases, versus the more normal 7 - 9 months build time from initial contract to close. As many who are relocating to Florida are eager to escape the cold weather or to start their retirement years as Floridians, and not necessarily wanting to wait this extended length of time for a home to be built, many are opting for recently-built homes in the resale market and paying a premium above ask price to secure a deal.

Florida Median Home Price vs Inventory

Plotted values are single family homes, past 12 months

As interest rates have risen considerably in the first half of 2022, and Florida home prices continue to rise, we are now seeing where the inventory of single family homes (measured in months) is slowly starting to rise from its historic lows.

   Source: FloridaRealtors.org, July 2022
If you're considering moving to Florida and doing your initial research online, we encourage you to read the comments below by our real estate experts as they discuss their outlook for the 2nd half of 2022, market trends taking place in their region of Florida as well as helpful relocation advice.

Regions of Florida

NW Florida / Panhandle

Pensacola

Panhandle Homes are Selling Quickly

The Pensacola real estate market continues to be very strong as the demand for housing is outpacing the number of properties hitting the market each month. The average price of a Pensacola home is now selling for $243K in early summer of 2022 and this represents a 31% year-over-year increase. For homes that are competitively priced in choice neighborhoods, near good schools, we are commonly experiencing multiple-offer situations taking place. With new construction homes, builders have been affected by supply chain issues limiting the ability for consumers to customize finishes. We are also seeing where builders are now releasing new homes for sale roughly 60 – 90 days before completion with the finishes they have pre-selected.

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My Outlook for the 2nd half of 2022

Based upon the current demand for Pensacola real estate and the number of people relocating here from around the country, I expect prices to continue steadily rising this year. For serious buyers, I don’t see interest rate increases affecting demand much as our real estate prices here in the Panhandle are much more attractive than most of the larger metropolitan areas of Florida.

Market Trends

The largest trend taking place is that there are many more cash deals than financed deals. We are seeing lots of investors, of all varieties, seeking to purchase properties for Airbnb rentals as our beaches are some of the most beautiful here in Florida. We are also seeing an uptick in younger buyers purchasing their first home to escape rising rental rates.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I can provide is to talk to a lender and make sure you take the appropriate steps to get pre-approved before you relocate (i.e. get pre-approved while you’re still working and quit your job to move here). I would also mention that the longer you wait to move here, prices are likely to increase due to the strong demand for housing.


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West Coast Florida

Lakewood Ranch

Unprecedented Buyer Demand

The Lakewood Ranch and Sarasota real estate market is currently facing unprecedented demand and this has driven the inventory of available homes to an extremely low level at less than one month’s supply. To make a comparison, a healthy, normal real estate market would have roughly a six-month supply of homes. This extremely low level of housing inventory has presented a new set of challenges to buyers whereby most homes hitting the market are now receiving multiple offers quickly and we are now seeing where highly-motivated buyers are waiving contingencies (i.e. inspection period, appraisals, etc.. ) to strengthen their offer.

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In the new construction market, builders are commonly receiving multiple offers on their lots and available home inventory. Some builders are now asking buyers to submit their “highest and best” offer, similar to the resale market, in order to be considered a contract. In terms of timelines, most new home builders are now quoting 11 – 14 months build time to complete the home. Meaning, from the day a buyer signs a sales contract with a builder, it could take up to fourteen months before the home is completed, passes county inspection, and the buyer can close on the home to take possession.

My recommendation for buyers in today's market who are seeking a resale home in established communities is that they should start their home search at least three to six months before they intend to move and if they're considering new construction, at least a year in advance as supply chain issues are commonly causing delays. Buyers should also be prepared to battle to a certain degree in this competitive market as multiple offers, waived contingencies, and compromises have become the new norm.

My Outlook for the 2nd Half of 2022

As interest rates have risen in the first half of the year, and likely to continue rising, this is actually having little effect on the Sarasota / Manatee housing market as so many of our buyers are all-cash or heavy-cash (i.e. buyers who make a large down payment to mitigate lending costs). Paired with a continuous lack of inventory, our local area is still experiencing a STRONG seller’s market. All of my listings are still receiving multiple offers, above list price, with most contingencies waived. I do not expect this to change much for the remainder of 2022. The under $600k buyer has also had a difficult time finding inventory since 2020 and now with the rising rates, we are seeing many of those buyers back out of the market.

Market Trends

These are the most notable trends I am observing.
  1. Strong demand for 2nd homes by baby boomers as they reach retirement age and fulfill their Florida retirement dreams.
  2. A greater number of younger families moving to Florida and seeking out good school districts and communities with built-in social opportunities.
  3. A strong preference by buyers for amenity-rich communities offering social activities.
  4. Real estate investors are seeking more longer-term rental opportunities vs the traditional "quick-flip" opportunities.

Relocation Advice

Start your home search now, even if you’re not planning on moving to Lakewood Ranch / Sarasota for another year or two. This will give you the needed time to thoroughly research an area and to set realistic expectations for the home you can afford, including the timeline it will take to either purchase, renovate, or build the new home. Also, make sure to connect with a licensed Realtor who can assist you in your search. Leverage their local market knowledge and proven experience in working new constructions deals and in crafting offers in this unprecedented, intricate market. The current Lakewood Ranch real estate market is extremely competitive as we are a top-selling community in the entire nation and working with a true professional will only save you time, energy and headaches.


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Fort Myers / Naples

Inventory Remains at All-Time Lows

We have a big demand for housing here in the Fort Myers/Naples area. Many people are fleeing the Midwest, New York, and New Jersey for better weather and lifestyle! Our housing inventory remains at an all-time low of roughly a one month's supply. In a healthy, normal market, we would have about a six months' supply. Unfortunately, the low inventory is not something that can or will be resolved quickly and may take several years to normalize. As such, there's no sign of a drastic market change anytime soon.

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In conjunction with the already high housing prices, rising interest rates are now simply making it unaffordable for many buyers and we are observing where many are simply just pulling out of the market. With SW Florida home prices achieving all-time highs, we're now seeing where buyers that CAN buy, WON'T buy, as they simply can't justify the current prices. I truly think we've hit our peak in the first half of 2022.

My Outlook for the 2nd Half of 2022

There's nothing indicating that SW Florida home prices will drop significantly any time soon. However, we are starting to notice more decreases in listing prices as of late. In fact, Cape Coral tops the list for Florida with the highest percentage of price decreases in April 2022 at 32.5% (vs. 18.5% in April 2021). This is a great sign! With higher interest rates and some buyers now pulling out of the market, homes will start to sit on the market a little longer. Inventory will eventually start to grow, and prices will slowly start to drop. It won't be significant, but it's a great sign of the change to come!

Market Trends

Over the past couple of months, I've noticed many more financed offers getting accepted. My listings have also had fewer cash buyers mixed into the competition. This is a great sign overall for younger buyers and families that have had a hard time competing against the all-cash offer. Another positive sign of a shifting market!

Relocation Advice

The biggest piece of advice that I can give buyers is if you're thinking of buying, don't wait! If you're financing, be pre-approved and ready to go. Know how much money you'll need to put down and talk to your agent about strategic ways to make your offer more appealing to sellers. Even with interest rates rising, they are still historically low by comparison. It's still a great time to buy and to achieve your goal of home ownership!


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Central Florida

Orlando

Growth Continues in Central Florida

The Greater Orlando area remains a popular relocation destination for families to enjoy Florida's great weather, theme parks, beaches, and to work from home. Particularly, the newer construction areas of Lake Nona on the southeast side of Orlando International Airport as Lake Nona’s medical city and now Disney Campus announced to be built there. Newer Resale homes as well as new construction are in high demand and in short supply. Some builders are using a bidding system and charging high lot premiums for the chance to build a new home there, and it could take longer to complete, as much as 18 months build time.

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Getting into the best school districts and newer neighborhoods like Laureate Park, Eagle Creek, and parts of Winter Garden's Horizon west in a newer home is what most relocations hunt for, and thus it has become a fast-paced competitive market to get a property in this category. Expect to pay upwards of $250/square foot or more, including going over asking price with cash or very few contingencies, to have the chance to be the winning bidder on a high-quality resale home, or new lots that get released to build on.

My Outlook for the 2nd half of 2022

Growth continues in Orlando’s most popular suburbs such as Lake Nona, Winter Garden, and established areas like Dr Phillips, Windermere, and Winter Park. Affordability of homes is getting tighter, and yet more and more relocations discover the Central Florida market, which is influencing our pricing locally.

As the Fed has just increased interest rates another 75 basis points in late July, which was anticipated by lenders, homes are now taking are taking roughly 14-30 days on market to sell, and need to be priced "right" as there are now fewer buyers for each home.

We are also back in a "balanced" market where buyers will have the time to decide which house and offer structure they want to go with, to some degree. Listings that have unique qualities, including renovations already done, swimming pools, larger lot sizes, and in locations with the best school districts, these continue to sell quickly and for high prices. We foresee that over the coming months, more sellers will cash out of their equity gained in these properties and may need contingency offers to be able to sell their home before they buy. Additionally, always be on the look-out for "deals" where an un-renovated home in a nice neighborhood may be able to be purchased at a discount, where a motivated seller is in place.

Market Trends

Cash buyers and strong financing offers with very little contingencies in place tend to win in multiple offer situations, so being ready with your finances is key. Buyers tend to gravitate to homes with larger lots, because in the new construction areas, many of the homes are packed close together. New builds are tougher to find and being ready when the builder releases a phase of lots is the way to win.

Relocation Advice

When relocating it is so important to narrow down the areas of Orlando you want to target, and don’t just look at new construction since those locations may be further out from the best schools and amenities, being that we are in an Urban Sprawl. Have enough time to hunt for resale homes that pop up for sale as well as lots to be released by builders, and be ready when they do. Consider purchasing a smaller townhome to live in for a year or two while you build your larger "forever home" in your favorite area of Orlando, to avoid paying high rent prices as you wait for the perfect resale or new construction opportunity.


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East Coast Florida

Jacksonville

Florida's NE Market Remains Strong

The Jacksonville housing market has experienced steady appreciation of 15 - 20% over the past few years as many are relocating to Florida, but we are now starting to see signs that market conditions are slowly starting to normalize now that rates have risen in the first half of the year. In the Jacksonville market currently, housing inventory still remains low at approximately a 1 month supply, but this showing signs of slowly increasing. While we are still experiencing strong activity and multiple offer situations for in-demand areas and price ranges, including new construction homes, it's not nearly as much or as extreme as it was in the first half of 2022. We are also now seeing where new home builders are backing away from an auction system when releasing their available lots. The auction system was implemented to allow prospective buyers to bid on a "lot premium" amount in efforts to try and secure a deal.

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My Outlook for the 2nd half of 2022

The demand for Jacksonville real estate continues to be very healthy heading into the 2nd half of 2022, and this trend is likely to remain. Should interest rates continue rising into year-end, this is likely to slow down the demand for our real estate and allow inventory levels to finally start increasing. I also expect home price appreciation to begin slowing and think we’ll see appreciation more in the 5% range in the year ahead vs some of the more lofty forecasts that have been predicted by Zillow and others.


Market Trends

As Jacksonville grows into being a major US city, the demand for its real estate has come along for the ride. There are 5-10 large hedge funds purchasing homes in the area causing prices to rise. Many businesses are also relocating a portion of their operations (or even their full headquarters) which is bringing new jobs and more people seeking housing. With access to Atlantic coast beaches, the St Johns River, diverse shopping and restaurant options, and a lifestyle pace that is far more enticing than most major metropolitan areas, Northeast Florida is no-longer a hidden gem but a discovered reality. Several hundred new homes are being built in St Johns County alone every month. Many out-of-town buyers are also drawn to the amenity-rich master-planned community of Nocatee in the Ponte Vedra area (SE Jacksonville) as it's a top-selling community in the entire Southeast.

Relocation Advice

If you're new to the Jacksonville area and not exactly sure where you’d like to live yet, feel free to reach out to me and we can discuss what activities you enjoy and what you’d like to be close to. Also, just wanted to mention that as Jacksonville is the 2nd largest U.S. city (behind Anchorage, AK) at 874 square-miles in size, your experiences in one part of town could be different that one’s in a different part. As a long-time resident of the Jacksonville area, I am glad to provide my unique perspective on the different areas of Jacksonville and even glad to connect you with others who reside in these areas who can relay their experiences.


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Fort Lauderdale

Record Low Inventory Continues

The Fort Lauderdale housing market continues to experience record low inventory with homes quickly selling after hitting the market, often with multiple offers and well above ask price. Buyers are also stepping up to bridge the gap in a home’s appraisal value in efforts to secure a deal. In the first half of 2022, homes experienced nearly 20% appreciation and the average Fort Lauderdale home price is now inching closer to $600K. As for new construction homes, buyer demand is still far outpacing available inventory. Most new home communities are experiencing long wait lists and have now implemented a bidding process for when new lots are released, often in small quantities.

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My Outlook for the 2nd half of 2022

As interest rates have risen in the first half of the year, and is now affecting the affordability of homes for some heavily-financed buyers, this has not yet had any significant impact on slowing the demand for housing in the Fort Lauderdale market, and I expect this strong demand to continue into year-end. Also, as many sellers have priced their homes so aggressively high, I believe we’ll start to see more price reductions in list prices and properties sitting on the market slightly longer. I also believe we’ll begin to see where home prices are not appreciating as quickly as they have in recent years, but will continue to slowly increase until we have a balance in our housing supply.


Market Trends

I have noticed a significant increase in the number of cash buyers in the Fort Lauderdale market in recent years. Nearly one third of our single family homes and over half of our condos and townhomes are now sold to cash buyers. Many of these cash buyers are coming from the larger cities of the Northeast U.S. where housing prices and the cost of living is higher than our area. This again is another reason why our markets remains so strong and not really impacted by the rising interest rates.

Relocation Advice

When considering a relocation to the Fort Lauderdale area, first and foremost, it’s important to work with an experienced agent to help guide you through the buying process in this highly-competitive market. I would also advise you to have all your finances in order and be ready to pull the trigger on any property of interest quickly and aggressively. If you are planning to get a loan for your purchase, it’s important to get connected with a loan officer who can review all your documents and get you initially underwritten to allow a short loan approval contingency. I have several great lenders of which I am glad to put you in contact with! If you are planning to pay cash, make sure you have all the funds easily accessible and ready to go.


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Miami

Miami Home Prices are Rising

The demand for Miami real estate has been put into overdrive since the start of the pandemic. Simply stated, Florida has been open for business while many states have been locked down due to mandates and this has caused the great migration to Florida, versus the typical snowbird activity we see. With this on-going influx of buyers all seeking housing in the Miami market, and surrounding areas, we have been and continue to experience very low inventory levels in preferred neighborhoods and multiple-offer situations are commonly taking place when a new property comes to market. This surge in housing demand and short supply of homes has caused the average Miami home price in late July of 2022 to increase to $521,706 which represents a 28.6% year-over-year increase.

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My Outlook for the 2nd Half of 2022

My outlook for the Miami housing market in the year ahead is a continuation of the same strong demand, low inventory levels and rising housing prices. In my conversations with out-of-state buyers, many are simply wanting a change and a better quality of life in a warmer climate. As interest rates have risen in the first half of the year, and expected to continue rising through year-end, in addition to the growing inflation, I don’t really see this as a factor in slowing down home sales on a larger level as so many deals continue to be all cash and do not obtain any financing.

Here's a recent video from Yahoo Finance where Barbara Corcoran, a highly-successful real estate investor and host on the Shark Tank TV show discussing the same low inventory sitation taking place and how this trend is likely to remain, even if interest rates rise. Watch Video.

Market Trends

I have observed the following trends taking place.
  1. The vast majority of deals are now cash deals versus financed.
  2. We are seeing more luxury properties being purchased by crypto millionaires who are starting to cash in on their new-economy digital assets.
  3. We are seeing a much younger demographic purchasing investment homes for Airbnb and VRBO rentals.
  4. More international buyers are looking at the Miami market and acquiring property as a way to diversify their investments. This is helping to expedite the increase in housing prices and putting Florida more on par with the more populated states of New York and California and their housing costs.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I am able to offer those seeking to move to the Miami area for retirement, a job relocation or to be closer with family is to not wait too long as prices will likely keep rising, especially with the high-inflationary environment we are experiencing and the same size house will simply cost you more in the future. As Florida has long been undervalued in its housing prices as compared to other national markets, I do not expect this trend to reverse anytime soon.

For those who are seeking to purchase investment properties in the Miami area, I would encourage you to reach out to me as our team, and industry partners, are helping many to generate significantly more income and higher net returns than traditional “safe” investment property of the long-term. Although Florida real estate prices have risen in recent years, owning income-generating properties is still one of the best strategies many are using to build long-term wealth.


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