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The Florida Real Estate Market in 2022

Market outlook, trends and relocation advice from real estate experts

The demand for Florida real estate has been exceedingly strong over the past few years. Fueled by historic-low interest rates, a new work-from-home economy, corporate investors and a large influx of people relocating to the sunshine state, the average Florida home price in late April 2022, which includes both single family homes and condos/townhomes, has now increased to $378K and represents a 33.1% year-over-year gain. To view the median prices for single family homes and condos/townhomes for each of Florida's 22 city regions, be sure to visit our how expensive is it to live in Florida page where we also overview the cost of Living in Florida as compared to other states.

With so many people moving to Florida since the start of the pandemic, this has caused housing prices to rise significantly in a relatively short period of time. This strong demand has also caused the amount of homes for sale, often referred to as available inventory, to be at historic lows of roughly one month's supply or less (a six month's supply is standard in a normal market). With such a limited amount of housing inventory available, homes are selling quickly after hitting the market, often above asking price, and multiple-offer situations are becoming the norm in choice neighborhoods with good schools and preferred locations.

Florida's new home construction market is also affected by the strong demand. Coupled with supply chain issues, wait times for new homes can be up to 15 months in some cases, versus the more normal 7 - 9 months build time from initial contract to close. As many who are relocating to Florida are eager to escape the cold weather or to start their retirement years as Floridians, and not necessarily wanting to wait this extended length of time for a home to be built, many are opting for recently-built homes in the resale market and paying a premium above ask price to secure a deal.

Single Family Home Stats

Statistic Apr 2022 Apr 2021 % Change
Median Price $410K $337K + 22%
Months of Inventory 1.1 1.1 0%
Time to Contract 8 Days 11 Days - 27%

Condo/Townhome Stats

Statistic Apr 2022 Apr 2021 % Change
Median Price $310K $250K + 24%
Months of Inventory 1.3 2.3 - 44%
Time to Contract 10 Days 24 Days - 58%
  Source: FloridaRealtors.org, Apr 2022
If you're considering moving to Florida and doing your initial research online, we encourage you to read the comments below by our real estate experts as they discuss their outlook for 2022, market trends taking place in their region of Florida as well as helpful relocation advice.

Regions of Florida

NW Florida / Panhandle

Pensacola

Panhandle Homes are Selling Quickly

The Pensacola real estate market continues to be very strong as the demand for housing is outpacing the number of properties hitting the market each month. The average price of a Pensacola home is now selling for $220K in early 2022 and this represents a 28% year-over-year increase. For homes that are competitively priced in choice neighborhoods, near good schools, we are commonly experiencing multiple-offer situations taking place. With new construction homes, builders have been affected by supply chain issues limiting the ability for consumers to customize finishes. We are also seeing where builders are now releasing new homes for sale roughly 60 – 90 days before completion with the finishes they have pre-selected.

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Outlook for 2022

Based upon the current demand for Pensacola real estate and the number of people relocating here from around the country, I expect prices to continue steadily rising this year. For serious buyers, I don’t see interest rate increases affecting demand much as our real estate prices here in the Panhandle are much more attractive than most of the larger metropolitan areas of Florida.

Market Trends

The largest trend taking place is that there are many more cash deals than financed deals. We are seeing lots of investors, of all varieties, seeking to purchase properties for Airbnb rentals as our beaches are some of the most beautiful here in Florida. We are also seeing an uptick in younger buyers purchasing their first home to escape rising rental rates.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I can provide is to talk to a lender and make sure you take the appropriate steps to get pre-approved before you relocate (i.e. get pre-approved while you’re still working and quit your job to move here). I would also mention that the longer you wait to move here, prices are likely to increase due to the strong demand for housing.


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West Coast Florida

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Home Prices are Rising

The demand for Tampa Bay real estate has been put into overdrive since the start of the pandemic. Simply stated, Florida has been open for business while many states have been locked down due to mandates and this has caused the great migration to Florida, versus the typical snowbird activity we see. With this on-going influx of buyers all seeking housing in the Tampa bay market, and surrounding counties, we have been and continue to experience very low inventory levels in preferred neighborhoods and multiple-offer situations are commonly taking place when a new property comes to market. This surge in housing demand and short supply of homes has caused the average Tampa Bay home price in early 2022 to increase to $360,000 which represents a nearly 30% year-over-year increase.

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Outlook for 2022

My outlook for the Tampa Bay housing market in the year ahead is a continuation of the same strong demand, low inventory levels and rising housing prices. In my conversations with out-of-state buyers, many are simply wanting a change as they are tired of being cooped up during the pandemic. Should interest rates increase later this year, in addition to the rising inflation, I don’t really see this as a factor in slowing home sales as so many deals are all cash and do not obtain any financing.

Here's a recent video from Yahoo Finance where Barabara Corcoran, a highly-successful real estate investor and host on the Shark Tank TV show discussing the same low inventory sitation taking place and how this trend is likely to remain, even if interest rates rise. Watch Video.

Market Trends

I have observed the following trends taking place.
  1. The vast majority of deals are now cash deals versus financed.
  2. We are seeing more luxury properties being purchased by crypto millionaires who are starting to cash in on their new-economy digital assets.
  3. We are seeing a much younger demographic purchasing investment homes for Airbnb and VRBO rentals.
  4. More international buyers are looking at the Tampa market and acquiring property as a way to diversify their investments. This is helping to expedite the increase in housing prices and putting Florida more on par with the more populated states of New York and California and their housing costs.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I am able to offer those seeking to move to the Tampa Bay area for retirement, a job relocation or to be closer with family is to not wait too long as prices will likely keep rising. Florida has long been undervalued in its housing prices as compared to other national markets and I do not expect this trend to reverse anytime soon.

For those who are seeking to purchase investment properties in the Tampa Bay area, I would encourage you to reach out to me as our team, and industry partners, are helping many to generate significantly more income and higher net returns than traditional “safe” investment property of the long-term. Although Florida real estate prices have risen in recent years, owning income-generating properties is still one of the best strategies many are using to build long-term wealth.


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Lakewood Ranch

Unprecedented Buyer Demand

The Lakewood Ranch and Sarasota real estate market is currently facing unprecedented demand and this has driven the inventory of available homes to an extremely low level at less than one month’s supply. To make a comparison, a healthy, normal real estate market would have roughly a six-month supply of homes. This extremely low level of housing inventory has presented a new set of challenges to buyers whereby most homes hitting the market are now receiving multiple offers quickly and we are now seeing where highly-motivated buyers are waiving contingencies (i.e. inspection period, appraisals, etc.. ) to strengthen their offer.

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In the new construction market, builders are commonly receiving multiple offers on their lots and available home inventory. Some builders are now asking buyers to submit their “highest and best” offer, similar to the resale market, in order to be considered a contract. In terms of timelines, most new home builders are now quoting 11 – 14 months build time to complete the home. Meaning, from the day a buyer signs a sales contract with a builder, it could take up to fourteen months before the home is completed, passes county inspection, and the buyer can close on the home to take possession.

My recommendation for buyers in today's market who are seeking a resale home in established communities is that they should start their home search at least three to six months before they intend to move and if they're considering new construction, at least a year in advance as supply chain issues are commonly causing delays. Buyers should also be prepared to battle to a certain degree in this competitive market as multiple offers, waived contingencies, and compromises have become the new norm.

Outlook for 2022

We will likely see several interest rate hikes this year, according to the National Association of Realtors, which should slow the rate of homes sales on a national level. However, in our local Sarasota and Manatee County market, in which the inventory level of homes is very limited paired with outrageous buyer demand, home prices are likely to keep rising and not plateau within the next 12 months. These two main factors will give the all-cash buyer, and the heavy-cash buyer (i.e. buyers who make a large down payment to mitigate lending costs) the advantage in the year ahead.

Market Trends

These are the most notable trends I am observing.
  1. Strong demand for 2nd homes by baby boomers as they reach retirement age and fulfill their Florida retirement dreams.
  2. A greater number of younger families moving to Florida and seeking out good school districts and communities with built-in social opportunities.
  3. A strong preference by buyers for amenity-rich communities offering social activities.
  4. Real estate investors are seeking more longer-term rental opportunities vs the traditional "quick-flip" opportunities.

Relocation Advice

Start your home search now, even if you’re not planning on moving to Lakewood Ranch / Sarasota for another year or two. This will give you the needed time to thoroughly research an area and to set realistic expectations for the home you can afford, including the timeline it will take to either purchase, renovate, or build the new home. Also, make sure to connect with a licensed Realtor who can assist you in your search. Leverage their local market knowledge and proven experience in working new constructions deals and in crafting offers in this unprecedented, intricate market. The current Lakewood Ranch real estate market is extremely competitive as we are a top-selling community in the entire nation and working with a true professional will only save you time, energy and headaches.


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Fort Myers / Naples

The SW Florida Market Remains on Fire

We have huge demand for housing here in the Fort Myers/Naples area and there are little signs of a cool down anytime soon, unfortunately. The largest reason for this is a simple supply and demand issue. There's a ton of buyers that are looking to relocate full time or buy a second home, but our inventory remains at an all time low. The current supply of homes we have is for about a month and a half. In a healthy market, that would be a five to six month supply. Interest rates will likely be going up, which hopefully will help the market cool down slightly. But this change is not going to happen over night.

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Outlook for 2022

There's nothing indicating that prices will drop anytime soon, or throughout 2022. In the 4th quarter of 2021 alone, we saw our median sales price increase from $355,000 to $400,000 (a 12.6% increase).

Relocation Advice

The biggest piece of advice that I can give buyers is if you're thinking of buying, don't wait! Based on what we've seen over this past year, if you wait to buy you're only going to end up paying more. If you're financing, be pre-approved and ready to go. Know how much money you'll need to put down and talk to your agent about strategic ways to make your offer more appealing sellers. We have a large amount of cash buyers in the area, but that doesn't mean you can't get your financed-offer accepted!


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Central Florida

Orlando

Growth Continues in Central Florida

The Greater Orlando area remains a popular relocation destination for families to enjoy Florida's great weather, theme parks, beaches, and to work from home. Particularly, the newer construction areas of Lake Nona on the southeast side of Orlando International Airport as Lake Nona’s medical city and now Disney Campus announced to be built there. Newer Resale homes as well as new construction are in high demand and in short supply. Some builders are using a bidding system and charging high lot premiums for the chance to build a new home there, and it could take longer to complete, as much as 18 months build time.

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Getting into the best school districts and newer neighborhoods like Laureate Park, Eagle Creek, and parts of Winter Garden's Horizon west in a newer home is what most relocations hunt for, and thus it has become a fast-paced competitive market to get a property in this category. Expect to pay upwards of $250/square foot or more, including going over asking price with cash or very few contingencies, to have the chance to be the winning bidder on a high-quality resale home, or new lots that get released to build on.

Outlook for 2022

Growth continues in Orlando’s most popular suburbs such as Lake Nona, Winter Garden, and established areas like Dr Phillips, Windermere, and Winter Park. Affordability of homes is getting tighter, and yet more and more relocations discover the Central Florida market, which is influencing our pricing locally. With interest rates ticking up in early 2022 by at least ¼ point and another rate hike expected by year’s end, we are already seeing certain buyers get "priced out" of their favorite neighborhood, and need to look elsewhere to get the size and features in a home they want. For example, Saint cloud Sunbridge is a new development just southeast of Lake Nona’s Medical city that is expected to grow considerably in the next 10 years.

Market Trends

Cash buyers and strong financing offers with very little contingencies in place tend to win in multiple offer situations, so being ready with your finances is key. Buyers tend to gravitate to homes with larger lots, because in the new construction areas, many of the homes are packed close together. New builds are tougher to find and being ready when the builder releases a phase of lots is the way to win.

Relocation Advice

When relocating it is so important to narrow down the areas of Orlando you want to target, and don’t just look at new construction since those locations may be further out from the best schools and amenities, being that we are in an Urban Sprawl. Have enough time to hunt for resale homes that pop up for sale as well as lots to be released by builders, and be ready when they do. Consider purchasing a smaller townhome to live in for a year or two while you build your larger "forever home" in your favorite area of Orlando, to avoid paying high rent prices as you wait for the perfect resale or new construction opportunity.


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East Coast Florida

Jacksonville

Florida's NE Market Remains Strong

The Jacksonville housing market has experienced steady appreciation of 15 - 20% over the past few years and this trend is likely to continue as many are relocating to Florida. In the Jacksonville market currently, active listings remain very low at approximately a 1 month supply, meaning all homes listed today will likely be sold in approx 30 days based upon current demand. We are also experiencing heavy activity and extreme multiple offer situations for in-demand areas and price ranges. One recent example was in a neighborhood off of San Pablo Rd that received 44 offers in the first weekend it came on the market. Similar activity is present in the new construction world as well. Prime neighborhoods have gone to an auction system when releasing available lots whereby prospective buyers will bid on the "lot premium" amount in an effort to try and secure a deal.

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Outlook for 2022

The demand for Jacksonville real estate continues to be strong, and this trend is likely to remain. In fact, Zillow has recently named Jacksonville to be the 2nd hottest housing market in the country for 2022 and forecasts that home prices will rise roughly 22% this year. Should interest rates begin to increase later this year, the strong demand for housing will likely continue since we are still near historic lows on interest rates.


Market Trends

As Jacksonville grows into being a major US city, the demand for its real estate has come along for the ride. There are 5-10 large hedge funds purchasing homes in the area causing prices to rise. Many businesses are also relocating a portion of their operations (or even their full headquarters) which is bringing new jobs and more people seeking housing. With access to Atlantic coast beaches, the St Johns River, diverse shopping and restaurant options, and a lifestyle pace that is far more enticing than most major metropolitan areas, Northeast Florida is no-longer a hidden gem but a discovered reality. Several hundred new homes are being built in St Johns County alone every month. Many out-of-town buyers are also drawn to the amenity-rich master-planned community of Nocatee in the Ponte Vedra area (SE Jacksonville) as it's a top-selling community in the entire Southeast.

Relocation Advice

If you're new to the Jacksonville area and not exactly sure where you’d like to live yet, feel free to reach out to me and we can discuss what activities you enjoy and what you’d like to be close to. Also, just wanted to mention that as Jacksonville is the 2nd largest U.S. city (behind Anchorage, AK) at 874 square-miles in size, your experiences in one part of town could be different that one’s in a different part. As a long-time resident of the Jacksonville area, I am glad to provide my unique perspective on the different areas of Jacksonville and even glad to connect you with others who reside in these areas who can relay their experiences.


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