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The Florida Real Estate Market Outlook For Early 2026

Market trends, home prices and relocation advice from real estate experts

The demand for Florida real estate has remained strong over the past few years, but now in late September of 2025, as the Fed has just reduced the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, the Florida market continues to undergo a healthy rebalancing with slightly reduced home inventory levels and most homes still spending 51 days on the market before going under contract . With Florida’s current median home price remaining just 4.6% under its all-time high of $430K (set in April 2024), combined with lingering mortgage rates around 6.3% and rising home insurance costs, some buyers continue to be challenged with overall home affordability.

At the end of August 2025, the median single family Florida home price was $410K and this represents a 0.4% year-over-year decrease. To view a breakdown of median home prices for each of Florida's city regions, be sure to visit our how expensive is it to live in Florida page where we also overview the cost of living in Florida as compared to other states.

Median Prices of Florida Real Estate

Type Aug 2025 Aug 2024 % Change
Single Family Homes $410K $412K - 0.4%
Condos/Townhomes $290K $310K - 6.5%
Months of Inventory 5.3 4.5 + 17.8%
  Source: Florida Realtors, September 2025
As Florida remains a top destination state of which people are moving to, this continues to keep home prices elevated. This on-going demand for housing has also caused the amount of homes for sale, often referred to as available inventory, to remain minimally low at a 5.3 month supply (a 6 month supply is considered a normal, balanced market). Additionally, as the majority of Florida homeowners have a mortgage rate well under the current rate, many are choosing to remain in their current home with their low monthly payment, versus moving and taking on a higher payment. In today's Florida real estate market, correctly priced homes are continuing to sell fairly quick after hitting the market and for homes in choice neighborhoods with good schools and preferred location, some multiple-offer situations are still occurring, but at a much lesser pace than was during the market peak.

Florida's new home construction market is also experiencing a pullback in consumer demand with the lingering higher rates, but still leads the nation in new home sales for top-selling, master-planned communities. Some national home builders are now offering buyers, who opt to use their in-house lenders, a more attractive rate as well as credits to buyers to help buy down their rate. In terms of the build time for new Florida homes, wait times are running roughly 9 -12 months, versus the more typical 7 - 9 months build time (from initial contract to close) as construction labor shortages are now causing delays for home builders in various metropolitan markets around the state. While many who are relocating to Florida are eager to escape the cold weather or to start their retirement years as Floridians, and not necessarily wanting to wait this extended length of time for a home to be built, many are opting for recently-built homes in the resale market and will often pay near full ask price to secure a deal.

Florida Median Home Price vs Inventory

Plotted values are single family homes, past 12 months

The median Florida home price in August of 2025 remained flat at $410K, representing zero change from July. Inventory levels also pulled back slightly to a 5.3 month supply, marking two straight months of inventory decline.

   Source: Florida Realtors, September 2025
If you're considering moving to Florida and doing your initial research online, we encourage you to read the comments below by our real estate experts as they discuss their outlook for Florida home prices for early 2026, market trends taking place as well as helpful relocation advice.

Florida Market Outlook (by region)

NW Florida / Panhandle

Pensacola

A More Balanced Market

The Pensacola real estate market continues to transition back to a more balanced one, where buyer and seller demand are more equal. As we're now in September, we continue to see where the higher interest rates are causing some heavily-financed buyers to pause or hold-off on purchasing due to the increased monthly payments. On the seller side, we continue to see more reductions in listing prices, more contributions towards closing costs, or offers to help buy down the interest rate for qualified buyers.

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As for Pensacola’s new construction market, home builders are currently offering some great incentives for buyers who can close quickly within 30-45 days, such as reduced rates and credits towards closing costs.

Pensacola Market Forecast for Early 2026

My outlook for the Pensacola real estate market in early 2026 is for prices to remain relatively flat for the most part as our market continues to normalize. As the Fed has now finally cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, as inflation has stabalized, I would now expect to see a slight bump in buyer activity going forward as we’ll likely be back to seeing some “multiple” and “above-ask” offers in year ahead.

Market Trends

I have been observing the following market trends.
  • Fewer investors chasing properties for Airbnb rentals than was during the market peak.
  • An uptick in younger buyers purchasing their first home to escape higher rental rates.
  • Fewer cash deals currently taking place than was a couple years ago.


Relocation Advice

The best advice I can provide is to talk to a lender and make sure you take the appropriate steps to get pre-approved before you relocate (i.e. get pre-approved while you’re still working and quit your job to move here). I would also mention that the longer you wait to move here, prices are likely to increase due to the strong demand for housing.


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West Coast Florida

Tampa Bay

Housing Prices are Rebalancing

The Tampa Bay housing market has been undergoing a rebalancing as interest rates continue to remain at elevated levels, even though the Fed has now implemented some initial rate cuts. The median sale price for single family homes in the Tampa Bay area in September of 2025 is approximiately $410K, and has remained around this price point for nearly two years now.

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While housing inventory levels for the Tampa Bay region remain below market equillibrium, at a 4.3 month supply, they have increased considerably off the historically low levels we experienced during the pandemic. We are now seeing where homes are now sitting on the market longer, listing prices are being reduced to be more competitive as more negotiations and seller concessions are taking place.

In terms of Tampa Bay’s new construction market, builders are no-longer implementing lottery systems, but buyers, who are not purchasing an inventory home, still need to get registered on builder wait lists and wait times for custom homes are still running roughly 10+ months.


Tampa Bay Market Forecast for Early 2026

My outlook for the Tampa Bay housing market through early 2026 is a continuation of the same strong buyer demand, for many reasons. I expect to see our home prices continuing to stabilize and for home appreciation rates to be much lower going forward though. I also see our inventory levels slowly trending back to a more normalized market of 5 – 6 months in the year ahead.


Market Trends

I am observing the following trends currently taking place in the Tampa Bay housing market.
  • A slowdown in deals which are all cash or heavy cash.
  • A younger demographic purchasing investment homes for Airbnb and VRBO rentals.
  • Continued strong demand from international buyers who are looking at the Tampa market to acquire property as a way to diversify their investments.

Relocation Advice

The best advice I am able to offer those seeking to move to the Tampa Bay area for retirement, a job relocation or to be closer with family is to not wait too long as prices will likely keep rising with time, especially with continued inflation as the same size house will simply cost you more in the future. As Florida has long been undervalued in its housing prices as compared to other highly-populated states, I do not expect this trend to reverse anytime soon.

For those who are seeking to purchase investment properties in the Tampa Bay area, I would encourage you to reach out to me as our team, and industry partners, are helping many to generate significantly more income and higher net returns than traditional “safe” investment property over the long-term. Although Florida real estate prices have risen in recent years, owning income-generating properties is still one of the best strategies many are using to build long-term wealth.


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Lakewood Ranch

Buyers are More Discerning

The current Lakewood Ranch and Sarasota real estate markets continue to see healthy demand for housing, which has caused the median sales price for single family homes in Sarasota County to remain strong even though interest rates still persist at elevated levels. Buyers, however, have become more discerning with the higher rates and sellers are now more realistic and aggressive in their pricing, especially if work needs to be completed in their home. We are also seeing where current housing inventory levels are continuing to slowly rise back to more normal levels, a sign that the market is in the process of transitioning back to a more balanced and healthy market.

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In the new construction market, builders are back to offering pre-Covid sales incentives, such as $10K towards closing costs or healthy incentives towards a pool package. The majority of our area’s builders have also ceased their “highest and best” bidding process in exchange for the traditional “first come, first served” process of which buyers are delighted to see. Build time on new construction homes is running roughly 9 - 10 months for national home builders and up to 12 months for more custom home builders.

Lakewood Ranch Market Forecast for Early 2026

My outlook for the Sarasota / Manatee housing market for early 2026 is a continuation of the same persistent demand derived from retirees relocating to our region, families seeking our top-ranked schools as well as work-from-home lifestyle changes. However, with the continued higher rates and general increase in the cost of living across the board, we will likely continue to see more and more buyers priced out of our market, allowing inventory levels to continue rising over time. I also expect to only see the realistically-priced and well-marketed listings continue to sell, in addition to continued strong interest from all-cash and heavy-cash buyers.

Market Trends

These are the most notable trends I am observing.
  • Demand for 2nd homes by baby boomers as they reach retirement age and fulfill their Florida retirement dreams.
  • A greater number of younger families moving to Florida and seeking out good school districts and communities with built-in social opportunities.
  • A strong preference by buyers for amenity-rich communities offering social activities.
  • Real estate investors are seeking more longer-term rental opportunities vs the traditional "quick-flip" opportunities.

Relocation Advice

Start your home search now, even if you’re not planning on moving to Lakewood Ranch / Sarasota for another year or two. This will give you the needed time to thoroughly research an area and to set realistic expectations for the home you can afford, including the timeline it will take to either purchase, renovate, or build the new home. Also, make sure to connect with a licensed Realtor who can assist you in your search. Leverage their local market knowledge and proven experience in working new constructions deals and in crafting offers in this intricate market. The current Lakewood Ranch real estate market is extremely competitive as we are a top-selling community in the entire nation and working with a true professional will only save you time, energy and headaches.


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Sarasota / Venice

Strong Demand in the Suncoast

The Sarasota real estate market remains strong in September as many continue to relocate to the Suncoast from the Northeast, the Midwest and other parts of the county for our Florida climate, high-quality of life and top-selling master-planned communities, especially for retirement. Current inventory levels for single family homes are at a 5.2 month supply, which is just below a perfectly balanced market of 6 months. I am, however, still seeing a few multiple offers take place for properties which are priced correctly in choice neighborhoods and offer many resident amenities. For the heavily-financed buyer, they continue to face some challenges with the lingering higher rates where monthly payments can be as high as 40% or more for the same house than was two years ago.

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Sarasota's new construction market remains healthy as many top builders continue to announce new communities and offerings, mostly east of I-75 or in South Sarasota county as land is available to build. New construction releases tend to be in smaller quantities though and wait times are now much less than was during the market peak when supply chain issues were causing delays.

Sarasota / Venice Market Forecast for Early 2026

My Outlook for the Sarasota housing market in early 2026 is a continuation of the same healthy buyer demand and slightly increased inventory levels. As the Fed has just announced a much needed quarter-point rate cute here in September, I would expect to see an increase in buyer activity in the coming months as the Fed has also hinted at future rate cuts. I also expect home prices to remain mostly flat or minimally higher in the coming year.

Market Trends

Many of my buyers continue to seek out master-planned communities such as Palmer Ranch or Wellen Park as these communities offer many resident amenities and a variety of home styles from single family, townhome and condo at varying price points. I am also observing where listings are now sitting on the market slightly longer and is an overall healthy sign for our real estate market.

Relocation Advice

The best relocation advice I can give is to choose an experienced Realtor who has a strong knowledge of the areas/neighborhoods you are seeking and to leverage this to your advantage. It’s also a good idea to start your search early to get a feel for the properties hitting the market and to see what they are selling for. Lastly, if you will be obtaining financing, reach out to a qualified lender to get pre-approved and to have your finances in order. I have several top lenders of which I am glad put you in touch with!


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Fort Myers / Naples

A Buyer's Market

The Fort Myers/Naples area still remains in a buyer’s market as our current housing inventory is a very healthy 5.9 months (single family homes) and 9.8 months (condos) as sellers are listing their homes once again. This is giving buyers many options to choose from. While some buyers still remain challenged, or hesitant, to purchase with the higher, lingering interest rates, many sellers are now implementing price reductions and incentives to attract more buyers and offers. Also, as our market continues to rebalance, a decent number of buyers already living here in Southwest Florida continue stepping up to purchase their own piece of paradise, in addition to those relocating here, albeit at a slower pace than we saw previously with the lower rates.

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Fort Myers / Naples Market Forecast for Early 2026

My outlook for the Fort Myers and SW Florida housing market heading into 2026 is that our inventory levels will continue to slowly trend back down, as buyers are beginning to step up again. Also, many buyers to our area will continue to be from the Midwest, New York, and New Jersey as they seek the better weather and lifestyle that SW Florida is known for.

Market Trends

Based upon current conditions, I am now seeing whereby most homes are sitting on the market for roughly 58 days before selling, which means better negotiating power for buyers. I'm also seeing more buyers asking for money towards their closing costs. This money can then be used to buy down their interest rate if they like, either permanently or with a temporary buy down.

Relocation Advice

The biggest piece of advice that I can give buyers is if you're thinking of buying, don't wait! If you're financing, be pre-approved and ready to go. Know how much money you'll need to put down and talk to your agent about strategic ways to make your offer more appealing to sellers. Also, keep in mind that having a mortgage is simply having a set housing cost, unlike renting, which is subject to market conditions and continues to rise each year. Marry the house, date the rate. Buyers can always refinance down the road if/when interest rates begin to fall.


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Central Florida

Orlando

Growth Continues in Central Florida

The Greater Orlando area remains a popular relocation destination for families to enjoy Florida's great weather, theme parks, beaches, and to work from home. Particularly, the newer construction areas of Lake Nona on the southeast side of Orlando International Airport as Lake Nona’s medical city and now Disney Campus announced to be built there. Newer Resale homes as well as new construction are in high demand and in short supply. Some builders are using a bidding system and charging lot premiums for the chance to build a new home there, and it could take longer to complete, as much as 18 months build time.

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Getting into the best school districts and newer neighborhoods like Laureate Park, Eagle Creek, and parts of Winter Garden's Horizon west in a newer home is what most relocations hunt for, and thus it has become a fast-paced competitive market to get a property in this category. Expect to pay upwards of $250/square foot or more, including going over asking price with cash or very few contingencies, to have the chance to be the winning bidder on a high-quality resale home, or new lots that get released to build on.

Orlando Market Forecast for Early 2026

Growth will continue in Orlando’s most popular suburbs such as Lake Nona, Winter Garden, and established areas like Dr Phillips, Windermere, and Winter Park. While affordability of homes has gotten tighter, yet more and more relocations discover the Central Florida market, which is influencing our pricing locally.

My outlook for the Orlando real estate market in early 2026 is that we will remain in a balanced market where buyers will have the time to decide which house and offer structure they want to go with. Listings that have unique qualities, including renovations already done, swimming pools, larger lot sizes, and in locations with the best school districts, will continue to quickly and for high prices. We foresee in the months ahead that more sellers will cash out of their equity gained in their properties and may need contingency offers to be able to sell their home before they buy. Additionally, always be on the look-out for "deals" where an un-renovated home in a nice neighborhood may be able to be purchased at a discount, where a motivated seller is in place.

Market Trends

Cash buyers and strong financing offers with very little contingencies in place tend to win in multiple offer situations, so being ready with your finances is key. Buyers tend to gravitate to homes with larger lots, because in the new construction areas, many of the homes are packed close together. New builds are tougher to find and being ready when the builder releases a phase of lots is the way to win.

Relocation Advice

When relocating it is so important to narrow down the areas of Orlando you want to target, and don’t just look at new construction since those locations may be further out from the best schools and amenities, being that we are in an Urban Sprawl. Have enough time to hunt for resale homes that pop up for sale as well as lots to be released by builders, and be ready when they do. Consider purchasing a smaller townhome to live in for a year or two while you build your larger "forever home" in your favorite area of Orlando, to avoid paying high rent prices as you wait for the perfect resale or new construction opportunity.


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East Coast Florida

Jacksonville

Decreasing Inventory

The Jacksonville housing market continues to remain resilient in early September as buyers are stepping up once again and inventory levels are now back to a 5 month supply. By comparison, the housing supply was just over 6 months in January. New listings are now spending approximately 45 days on market. While we are still experiencing some multiple offer situations for in-demand areas and price ranges, it's nowhere near, nor extreme as it was during the market peak. New home builders are now back to the more traditional waiting lists for their available lots and offerings, which again makes for a healthier and more balanced market.

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Jacksonville Market Forecast for Early 2026

My outlook for the Jacksonville real estate market in early 2026 is that buyer demand will continue to be healthy, and only increase going forward as the Fed is likely to continue with additonal rate cuts heading into the new year. I also expect our Jacksonville home price appreciation to be much less going forward and think we’ll likely see appreciation more in the 1% - 5% range.


Market Trends

As Jacksonville grows into being a major US city, the demand for its real estate has come along for the ride. Many businesses are also relocating a portion of their operations (or even their full headquarters) which is bringing new jobs and more people seeking housing. With access to Atlantic coast beaches, the St Johns River, diverse shopping and restaurant options, and a lifestyle pace that is far more enticing than most major metropolitan areas, Northeast Florida is no-longer a hidden gem but a discovered reality. Several hundred new homes are being built in St Johns County alone every month. Many out-of-town buyers are also drawn to the amenity-rich master-planned communities of Silverleaf and Nocatee (south of Jacksonville) as they are top-selling communities in the entire Southeast.

Relocation Advice

If you're new to the Jacksonville area and not exactly sure where you’d like to live yet, feel free to reach out to me and we can discuss what activities you enjoy and what you’d like to be close to. Also, just wanted to mention that as Jacksonville is the 2nd largest U.S. city (behind Anchorage, AK) at 874 square-miles in size, your experiences in one part of town could be different that one’s in a different part. As a long-time resident of the Jacksonville area, I am glad to provide my unique perspective on the different areas of Jacksonville and even glad to connect you with others who reside in these areas who can relay their experiences.


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Fort Lauderdale

Slightly Low Inventory

The Fort Lauderdale real estate market continues to see consistent housing demand in September of 2025, which is keeping available inventory slightly constrained, but not nearly as extreme as was during the market peak. Housing inventory in Broward County, for single family homes, still remains a smidge low at a 5.7 month supply of homes which is keeping home prices near record levels. For homes in high-demand areas, we are once again experiencing multiple offers taking place, near or slightly above ask price, but again, nowhere near the level we experienced during the market peak.

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Fort Lauderdale Market Forecast for Early 2026

As we await further rate cuts by the Fed later this year, after their 1/4 point cut in September, my forecast for the Fort Lauderdale real estate market in early 2026 is that we will likely now see more buyer activity and increased competition going forward, and that this trend will likely continue as futher rate cuts continue to be made.

Market Trends

We continue to see less cash buyers in the Fort Lauderdale market (roughly 20%) than we experienced about two years ago. We are also noticing where a larger number of sellers are willing to offer concessions to buy down credits for buyers.

Relocation Advice

When considering relocating to the Fort Lauderdale area, first and foremost, you will need a real estate pro to help guide you through the home buying process. There are various real estate markets throughout the Fort Lauderdale area, each with their own little nuances, and some of these areas/neighborhoods are seeing more activity than others. It’s no secret that we have had a lot of people coming from higher priced and cost of living markets moving to Florida. If you are planning to get a loan for your purchase, you will also want to get connected with a local loan officer who can review all your documents and get you initially underwritten to allow a short loan approval contingency. If you are planning to pay cash, make sure you have all the funds easily accessible and ready to go. If you are not in the area to see the property in person, video and virtual tours are available. As always, reach out to me with any questions you may have!


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Miami

Steady International Demand

The demand for Miami real estate, which spans new high-rise developments, second homes, and income-producing properties, remains steady from both domestic and international buyers amidst the now higher interest rate environment. Inventory levels for single family homes in early September of 2025 is currently at 6.4 months. The median Miami home price is now at $578K which represents a 2.4% year-over-year decrase.

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As Miami-Dade County continues to attract buyers from Latin America who seek a cultural city, buyers from California and New York who seek tax benefits, as well as buyers from many top companies who are relocating their HQ's or regional offices to South Florida, these factors continue to keep the housing market strong, even over other Florida markets, amidst the higher interest rates.

Miami Market Forecast for Early 2026

My outlook for the Miami housing market heading into next year is a continuation of the same consistent buyer demand as Miami continues growing into a large financial hub for many banks and financial companies and is now 2nd only in size to New York City on the east coast for the largest concentration of financial institutions. In terms of home price appreciation, I expect it to be much more moderate in the year ahead as the market is rebalancing from the unprecedented level of accelerated market appreciation it experienced over the past few years.

Market Trends

I am observing the following trends taking place.
  • Many residents continue to move out of central Miami to more suburban areas such as Kendall, Doral, and Homestead for more affordable housing options.
  • Developers are transforming old warehouses into mixed-use spaces which are now emerging as hot spots to live. Wynwood, Little River and Allapattah are some of these areas.
  • Investors continue to capitalize on high rental yields in areas such as Brickell, Wynwood, and Edgewater.

Relocation Advice

For those seeking to relocate to the Miami area, whether for a career, retirement or a fresh start, my advice is to know your budget, timeline and any specific housing needs and/or concerns you may have. Having been raised in Miami and living here all my life, I have a vast understanding of Miami's evolving real estate market and cost of living, its neighborhoods, local schools, job opportunities, as well as local amenities which allows me to guide individuals or families to make well-informed decisions tailored to their needs.


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